Publikacija: Uncovering patterns and distribution of severity indicators of empirical blackouts events

Novo istraživanje objavljeno u prestižnom časopisu Electrical Engineering Journal, po prvi put otkriva obrasce nestanaka električne energije u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine i pokazuje kada su blackout događaji najvjerovatniji. Ovaj značajan naučni doprinos na polju fizike i elektrotehnike donosi važne smjernice za sigurniji, stabilniji i otporniji elektroenergetski sistem za sve građane.
Posebno je identifikovano da ponašanje blackout događaja u elektroenergetskoj mreži FBiH, u zavisnosti od njihove ozbiljnosti, slijedi zakon stepena (power-law). Ovo power-law ponašanje kvarova dodatno otkriva ranjivost sistema te omogućava kvalitetniju procjenu rizika i otpornosti elektroprenosne mreže u međunarodnom kontekstu.
Rezultati ove studije pružaju jedinstven i vrijedan skup saznanja operatorima sistema i donosiocima odluka za sigurnije upravljanje elektroenergetskim sistemom Federacije BiH. Analiza višegodišnjih podataka donosi važne uvide za bolje razumijevanje rizika, jačanje energetske sigurnosti Bosne i Hercegovine i njeno snažnije povezivanje sa savremenim evropskim energetskim tokovima.

Avdic, S., Dzananovic, I., Kunosic, S. et al. Uncovering patterns and distribution of severity indicators of empirical blackouts events. Electr Eng 108, 264 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00202-026-03594-1

Abstract: This paper deals with a time series of blackout events of the power transmission system in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H) in the period 2015–2023 and probability distributions that best fit these empirical data. The present study focuses on the global behaviour and dynamics of time series, ignoring the details of particular failures. We compiled the first comprehensive blackouts database in FB&H including the relevant information on each blackout feature. Most existing investigations concentrate on large-scale transmission systems, with limited evidence available for smaller and more compact grids. This study contributes new insight by investigating whether the heavy-tailed scaling observed in large systems also emerges in the FB&H transmission network. The power-law behaviour of the transmission network failure events in the FB&H power grid depending on their severity was identified. The estimated power-law exponent α is not merely a descriptive parameter but also reflects the underlying vulnerability of the system, making comparisons across countries valuable for assessing resilience and risk in transmission networks of different sizes and configurations. The results of this study show that the time intervals between the blackout events follow the exponential distribution. The data available from the FB&H power grid transmission centres in the observed period indicate that the frequency of all the blackout events in FB&H is not decreasing. It was determined that the blackout probability increases substantially during the morning hours, while the number of blackout events increases during the early summer and mid-fall months. However, the correlation analysis results show that there is only a weak, statistically insignificant correlation between blackout size and restoration time. The results for the FB&H power system, which relies predominantly on thermal power plants, indicate that despite differences in system scale and in the structure of electricity production compared with most EU power systems, no significant deviations are observed in blackout size behaviour when described by a power-law model. The results of this study provide a set of unique and valuable insights to operators and decision makers for the safe operation of the FB&H power system. The broader scope of applications of the results obtained includes the connection of the FB&H power system to power distribution across the Balkans for transfers and trading.